Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday and closed above the declining trend line to signal a new daily cycle.

The decline into the day 25 low did breach the daily cycle trend line. But it did not turn the 10 day MA lower. However the timing band and the TSI bullish zero line crossover indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks were in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The rally out of the day 52 low confirmed the new daily cycle. Closing above the 200 day MA looked promising that it also marked the ICL. Then stocks broke lower.

The peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. Losing both the 200 DMA & the 10 DMA, turning the 10 DMA lower, and closing below the lower daily cycle band all indicate that stocks are in a daily cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 2603.54 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the extension of the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

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