Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar formed a failed daily cycle this week confirming the intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday day 17, placing it in its early part of its timing band for a DCL. The dollar could trend lower for another 2 or 3 weeks, but Friday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 93.93 forms a swing low and a break above the declining trend line would have us then label day 17 as a DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new high on Friday, day 26, shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are 4 days shy of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low. Bearish divergences are beginning to develop which signal the impending daily cycle decline is near. A swing high and close below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Friday’s bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 2927.11 forms a swing high. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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