Cycle Trading

The yearly cycle low presents the best likelihood of gains for any asset class.

This is month 16 for the yearly steel cycle. Steel normally prints a YCL every 10 – 12 months so at 16 months it is very deep in its timing band to print a yearly cycle low. And steel is forming a bullish monthly reversal, which will ease the parameters for forming a yearly cycle low.

A yearly cycle low cannot form unless an intermediate cycle low is also forming …

Steel printed its lowest point his past week, week 24, placing still in its timing band for an ICL. The bullish weekly reversal eases the parameters for forming a weekly swing low. A break above 43.656 forms a weekly swing low to signal the new intermediate cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new weekly cycle.

And just like a yearly cycle low cannot form unless an intermediate cycle low has also formed, an intermediate cycle low cannot form unless a daily cycle low has also formed.

Steel printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 18, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. A swing low formed on Wednesday, then steel broke above the declining trend line to close above the 10 day MA on Friday to confirm a new daily cycle.

Confirming the new daily cycle is a signal that a new intermediate cycle has begun.
And if a new intermediate cycle has begun, then that signals that a new yearly cycle has also begun.

My thanks to Andrew who alerted me that steel was in the process of forming multiple cycle lows ;0)