Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The daily cycle peaked on day 8 then printed its lowest point on day 13. Was day 13 a shortened DCL?

While day 13 was the lowest point following the day 8 peak, the dollar closed above the 10 day MA on day 13 which makes me think that Friday was day 19. Day 8 remains as the daily cycle high, so this daily cycle can still form as a left translated daily cycle. The intermediate cycle is on week 24, placing the dollar late in its timing band for an ICL. A failed daily cycle is required for the intermediate cycle decline. A break below 93.44 will form a failed daily cycle.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday. What was that day 1 or day 25?

There was no Selling on Strength on Thursday, which appeared to be a change in character. That had me thinking that Thursday was a shortened, 24 day DCL.

But then stocks printed 318 million selling on strength on Friday. The large SOS on Friday continues the pattern SOS days for this daily cycle which makes me think that Thursday was a half cycle low. Another factor in labeling day 24 has a half cycle low was that the 10 day MA never turned lower.

This makes Friday day 25 for the daily equity cycle. The peak on day 18 still indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. But stocks would need to break lower next week for this daily cycle to maintain a left translated cycle formation. A break above the day 18 high will cause this daily cycle to right translated, therefore requiring another daily cycle in order to complete the intermediate cycle decline.

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