Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed is lowest point on Thursday, day 13. That is too early to expect a DCL.

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday. However, Friday’s candle formed as a bearish reversal candle. Since the 10 day MA did has not turned higher, the dollar is still declining into its DCL. If the dollar forms a daily swing high off of Friday’s candle, that will allow us to construct the declining cycle trend line. The peak on day 8 locks in a left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks

Friday’s swing high sets up a possible left translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks printed a new high on day 18, which begins to shift the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. But Friday’s swing high could change that. Stocks are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. A left translated, failed daily cycle is required to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. With Friday being only day 20, there is still enough time for the daily cycle to left translate.

Friday’s swing high did break below the daily cycle trend line to signal the beginning of the daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline. Still, stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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