Cycle Trading

The Dollar

Friday’s bull trap signals the daily cycle is in decline.

The dollar closed above the previous high on Thursday. But Friday’s huge bearish candle closed below the 10 day MA and manged to turn the 10 DMA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. While a new high on day 11 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation, the bull trap and huge sell off on Friday has me thinking that the dollar will form a failed daily cycle. Currently, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

On Friday, stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 39, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. While Friday’s swing low indicates a new daily cycle, stocks will need to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks have begun a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

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