Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar is very deep in its timing band for a DCL.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 40. At this point a swing low should mark the DCL. Then a close above the 10 day MA would confirm a DCL. Something to keep in mind is that the jobs numbers will be reported on Friday. Often times the dollar’s daily cycle either peaks or bottoms on or near the employment. So we could easily see the dollar’s decline extend into next week. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed a bearish candle on day 30 that closed below the 10 day MA. Since it did not deliver a trend line break nor did it cause the 10 day MA to turn lower we did not label day 30 as a DCL. However. it is undeniable that there has been a change in character for stocks since the beginning of the year.

Since the beginning of the year the rate of change for stocks has accelerated. And the daily cycle declines are becoming more of a sideways consolidation, allowing the 10 day MA to catch up to price. At this point we will watch for a close below the 10 day MA to signal a daily cycle decline. What is clear is that stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

I go on to discuss what this new change in character means for the intermediate cycle in the Weekend Report.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker. You can have a 1 month trial subscription to the Weekend Report for $15 by clicking here.

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