Cycle Trading

The dollar tagged the 200 month MA on Thursday.

The 200 month MA is a major support level. And with the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low, that has good odds to trigger a cycle low.

Thursday was day 40 for the daily dollar cycle. That places the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday’s bullish reversal off of support from the 200 month MA has eased the parameters for forming a daily cycle low. A break above 89.42 forms a swing low and signals a new daily cycle.

The dollar potentially printing its DCL has caused some pin action in other asset classes.
Precious metals was certainly one of the areas …

In real time day 27 looked as if it hosted a very mild DCL. I have been skeptical of a DCL label primarily due to the Miners not turning the 10 day MA lower. However, the bearish engulfing candle that formed on Thursday is much more likely to be the daily cycle top. A break below 23.98 forms a daily swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.

And there is a similar set up with oil.

Since oil did not close below the 10 day MA on day 28 I believe that makes Thursday day 32 for the daily oil cycle. At 32 days, that places oil in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Thursday’s bearish print eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 65.08 forms a daily swing high to signal the daily cycle decline.