Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday to signal a new daily cycle. However the dollar did not confirm a new daily cycle.

Since the dollar did not break convincingly above the declining trend line nor did it manage to turn the 10 day MA higher indicates that the daily cycle has extended. That makes Friday day 32 for an extended daily cycle. The dollar remains in a daily downtrend & will continue in its downtrend unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band. The bullish divergence developing on the oscillators indicate a daily cycle low is near.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on day 30 and has since rallied higher.

While day 30 was in its timing band for a DCL we did not receive confirmation that a DCL printed. Specifically stocks did not turn the 10 day MA lower nor did RSI confirm a day 30 DCL. But stocks have changed their behavior since day 30. Friday was day 39 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks formed a pivot this week which allows us to construct an accelerated trend line. Now we are watching for a swing high and a break of the accelerated trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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