Cycle Trading

Recently have been chronicling my hunt for a yearly cycle low for steel. Wednesday steel delivered a bullish signal that the bottom is in.

Steel broke below the previous weekly cycle low en route to printing the May low, forming a failed intermediate cycle. That was week 20, placing steel in its timing band for an ICL. While steel formed a weekly swing low the following week I was reluctant to label week 20 as the ICL.

Wednesday’s rally caused steel to breakout above the consolidation confirming that week 20 hosted the ICL

Steel printed its lowest point on 6/20 following the day 15 peak. Steel formed a swing low and broke convincingly above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Wednesday steel closed above both the upper daily cycle band and the 200 day MA. That further confirms that the intermediate cycle low has been set and signals that steel is beginning a new daily uptrend.