Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high and then closed below both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA to signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Friday was day 13 for the daily dollar cycle. The previous 7 daily cycles have averaged 33 days. So with a peak on day 10, this daily cycle is likely to form as a left translated daily cycle and continue the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the lower daily cycle band on Friday to indicate that stocks are declining into their daily cycle low.

Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals an end to the daily uptrend. It is also a reliable indicator that the intermediate cycle is in decline. The peak on day 7 locks in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below 2322.25 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle is in decline. And something to keep in mind is that the previous daily cycle was stretched at 58 days. Since cycles tend to balance a stretched cycle with a shortened cycle, we could see a shortened daily cycle here with stocks possibly printing a DCL next week.

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