Cycle Trading

Gold formed a swing low and closed above the 200 day MA in a clear and convincing manner. I have received some emails asking if gold has begun a new daily cycle.

Even though gold had formed a daily swing low on Tuesday, it has not delivered a recognizable decline into a daily cycle low. Normally a decline into a DCL should be enough to cause the 10 day MA to dip lower, which has not happened here. So that would make Tuesday day 22 for the daily gold cycle.

Of course the swing low allows long positions to be entered with a stop below Monday’s low. But we need to keep in mind that gold is on day 22 for the daily gold cycle that has been averaging 33 days per cycle since emerging from the 12/15 bear market bottom. Which means that over then next week our cyclical expectation is for gold to begin to seek out its daily cycle low. A swing high accompanied by a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.