Cycle Trading

Stocks have formed a weekly swing low this week.

Last week stocks printed their lowest point following the week 17 peak. At 21 weeks, that places stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So while a swing low can signal a new intermediate cycle, I do not believe that the evidence supports that week 21 hosted an ICL.

Stocks broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to signal that day 58 was a daily cycle low. One of the reasons that I doubt that day 58 hosted an ICL is that the rally so far has been timid. Normally out of an ICL stocks can rally anywhere for 5 – 8% over the first week or so, which has not happened here. Stocks also have formed a bearish TSI zero line crossover. That is a signal that we typically see as stocks start to roll over into a daily cycle decline.

So I suspect that the weekly swing low that has formed is only setting the declining trend line. Rejection by the declining trend line should send stocks into their final decline into their intermediate cycle low. Stocks would need to break below the week 21 ow of 2322.25 in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline.