Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar printed it lowest point on Wednesday following the day 19 peak. That was day 33, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The daily swing low that formed on Friday has good odds of marking the DCL. A close above the 10 day MA would signal a new daily cycle. It would also mean that the dollar did not break below the previous low of 99.19 to form a failed daily cycle. If day 33 is the DCL then the dollar would have formed a right translated daily cycle. A right translated daily cycle formation would indicate that the February DCL did host the intermediate cycle low. However, a break below the previous DCL of 99.19 will negate the right translated cycle formation. It will also signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks printed a lower low on Friday.

At day 57, that places stocks deep in in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low would signal a new daily cycle. I still would like to see a clear and convincing break of the (black) daily cycle trend line before being satisfied that the daily cycle low is in. However if stocks go on to rally from here and break above the declining (blue) trend line then that would signal that Friday hosted the daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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