The 1/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

January 14, 2017

The Dollar

After peaking on day 16, the dollar formed a swing high & closed below the upper daily cycle band to signal the daily cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 23, following the cycle peak. The dollar could still break lower but a move above 101.77 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line would then confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has closed above the lower daily cycle band, maintaining its daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Friday was day 9 for the daily equity cycle. While stocks remain above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend, the momentum indicators have been developing a bearish divergence.

If the intermediate cycle is to form as a left translated weekly cycle then the current daily cycle would need to also form as a left translated cycle. Therefore a close below the 10 day MA could send stocks into their daily cycle decline.

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7 responses to “The 1/13/17 Weekend Report Preview”

Hendri kus

January 15, 2017

Dear Sir,

Thanks for the sample weekend report.

Is it possible that oil is forming a RT IC (last week being Week 23) and postponed the YCL into next IC?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  January 15, 2017
  
  Hendri,
  
  The November low was a bit too early for an ICL, so it is possible that this was week 23.
  However, since a failed daily cycle preceded the November low makes me think that 15 hosted an early ICL.
  If oil closes below the October high then that would affirm that oil is declining into its yearly cycle low.
  
  Reply
  1. hendri kus
    
    January 15, 2017
    
    Thanks for the explaination.
  2. hendri kus
    
    January 15, 2017
    
    Just wondering,
    
    1. Is a decline into a YCL usually worse than a LT ICL decline?
    
    2. What is the shortest number of weeks to make this cycle a LT one (assuming week 7 is the weekly cycle high)?
    
    Thanks
  3. likesmoneystudies
    
    January 18, 2017
    
    Hendri,
    
    A YCL is normally more severe than a ICL.
    A YCL should form as a result of a failed left translated ICL.
    A YCL can only form at the same time as a ICL
    
    There is no rule for the shortest number of weeks to make a LT cycle in stocks. But generally a new intermediate equity cycle will rally 6 – 8 weeks if it is left translated.
    
    LM
hendri

January 20, 2017

LM,

Just when I thought oil has started moving towards YCL, it moves up sharply today. What if it closes above Oct high, what happens to the cycle?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  January 20, 2017
  
  Hendri,
  
  Since oil had already broke above the October high in December, I think that you mean “what if it closes above the Jan high.
  Since oil’ weekly cycle can run 30 plus weeks it does not necessarily change things.
  I plan to cover this in the Weekend Report.
  
  LM
  
  Reply

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