Cycle Trading

Oil formed a daily swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm its daily cycle decline.

Monday was day 37 for the daily oil cycle. That places oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 33 assures us of a right translated cycle formation. Therefore our cyclical expectation is to see oil print a higher daily cycle low. But our longer term view is more bearish.

January is month 11 for the yearly oil cycle. That places oil in its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. A failed daily cycle is necessary to confirm the yearly cycle decline. Therefore we will be watching to see if the next daily cycle forms as left translated failed daily cycle that will usher in the yearly cycle decline.