Cycle Trading

Oil’s yearly cycle peaked in October, month 8, which means that oil has entered its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low.

Oil did form a monthly swing high in November. But I do not believe that oil has completed its yearly cycle decline.

A failed cycle of a lower order confirms the cycle decline of a higher order. Specifically for oil, a failed intermediate cycle confirms the yearly cycle decline for oil. So oil would have to break below the previous intermediate low of 39.19 in order to form a failed weekly cycle to confirm the yearly cycle decline. The current weekly cycle high printed on week 11. If that holds as the weekly high sets up a possible left translated weekly cycle formation.

Our weekly framework needs a failed weekly cycle to complete its yearly cycle decline. A failed daily cycle aligns with that expectation. If oil forms a swing high & loses the 50 day MA then oil would be forming a left translated daily cycle.

Which should set things in motion for oil to complete its yearly cycle decline.