Cycle Trading

Gold came close to forming a daily swing low on Monday.

Gold printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 3 peak. Friday was day 25, which places gold right in its timing band to form a daily cycle low. Gold did manage to close back above the 10 day MA on Monday. But still needs to break above 1267.60 to form a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle. And this will also likely mark a new intermediate cycle as well.

It is interesting to note that during the previous intermediate cycle low gold needed a few days after printing its low before getting some traction. And I believe that gold will get that traction once is the dollar forms a daily swing high.

The dollar printed its highest point on Friday day 21 (and actually a case can easily be made that Friday was day 34). At 21 days, that places the dollar right in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. If the daily cycle is actually at 35 days, then the dollar is long over due for a daily cycle decline. A break below 96.41 forms a daily swing high to signal the start of the dollar’s daily cycle decline.

And the True Strength Indicator has exceeded the level that has seen all daily cycle over the previous 18 months roll over into a daily cycle decline.