Cycle Trading

The Dollar

While day 27 is in the timing band for a daily cycle low, the lack declining trend line break makes it likely that the dollar is in an extended daily cycle decline with Thursday being day 39.

The dollar has established a daily downtrend. But Friday’s bullish harami signals a potential change. A break above 94.63 will form a daily swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks

Friday was day 38 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks late in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks have printed several swing highs but has failed to deliver any bearish follow through into a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. At this point we need to see a close below the upper daily cycle band to signal that stocks are moving into a daily cycle decline. A break out to a new high would suggest that stocks have begun a runaway move.

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