Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar was rejected by the 200 MA which prevented it from breaking above the declining trend line. That makes it possible that Friday was day 35 of an extended daily cycle.

The dollar has started to close below the lower daily cycle band which ends the daily uptrend and indicates a daily downtrend has begun.

Stocks

Stocks entered their timing band to seek a daily cycle low this week. Because of that, we needed to be prepared for bearish follow through to the swing high that formed on Wednesday.

The 10 day MA held support on Wednesday. Stocks negated the swing high from Wednesday by breaking out to a new daily cycle high on Thursday. Now a break below Thursday’s low of 2177.97 will provide the next opportunity for stocks to form a daily swing high to begin their daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain in an uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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