Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar appeared to have formed a 25 day, daily cycle low on 6/08. The break below the 6/08 low on 6/23 formed a failed daily cycle. Then the dollar exploded higher on 6/24 as a result of the BREXIT.

Eleven days is just too short for a daily cycle low. And since a cycle cannot fail and then print a higher high, it looks like we need to label 6/23 as an extended 36 day, daily cycle low. A bullish break out of consolidation would see the dollar establish a daily uptrend and start to swing the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. This is the type of behavior that we would expect if the dollar was emerging from a yearly cycle low.

Stocks
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Stocks have completely recovered from the decline precipitated by the BREXIT.

Stocks closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday indicating that stocks are resuming their daily uptrend. This confirms beyond a doubt that day 26 hosted an early daily cycle low. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

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