Cycle Trading

The dollar printed an intermediate cycle low in May. With May being month 9 for the yearly dollar cycle, there is a possibility that May also hosted the yearly cycle low.

This is week 7 for the intermediate dollar cycle. The dollar has been in a weekly down trend. This new intermediate dollar cycle has (so far) failed to close above the upper weekly cycle band. Which means that the dollar remains in its weekly down trend. It also means that May was not the the yearly cycle low but that it is likely still out in front of the dollar.

The daily cycle is behaving as if it is in an intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in its second daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. The dollar has failed to close above the upper daily cycle band during the 2nd daily cycle, which is a clear signal of a daily down trend. The dollar did close below the lower daily cycle band on Monday, affirming the daily down trend. While the dollar rallied on Tuesday, if the dollar has entered its intermediate cycle decline, then any rally should be short-lived before the dollar rolls over into a failed daily cycle.

The Miners have been struggling ever since the dollar emerged from its recent daily cycle low.

The Miners and the dollar have reciprocal setups – both approaching the 50 MA from opposite directions. The obvious catalyst of the BREXIT vote arriving on Thursday sets up a possible scenario of reversals occurring at the respective 50 day MA’s sending the Miners into a new daily cycle and the dollar into an intermediate cycle decline.