Cycle Trading

The Dollar

I believe that the dollar has begun its 3 year cycle decline which means that the dollar should begin to deliver bearish surprises. And I think that it has started.

The previous daily cycle saw a huge drop by the dollar to close below the lower daily cycle band, which signaled the start of a daily down trend. This new daily cycle has failed to close above the upper daily cycle band. Thursday’s shooting star was followed by the dollar forming a daily swing high and closing below the 50 day MA. This sets up a left translated daily cycle formation and indicates that the daily cycle decline has begun.

Stocks
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Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 19.

Despite this week’s volatility stocks managed to continue to close above the lower daily cycle band, therefore remaining in a daily uptrend. Stocks will need to deliver some bullish follow through and form a daily swing low to signal that day 19 was a half cycle low. However, if stocks break below Thursday’s low of 2050.37, then a failed daily cycle is likely.

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