Cycle Trading

The dollar broke out to a new high and closed convincingly above the 50 day MA on Wednesday.

A new high on day 11 shifts the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. And closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set. And a rising dollar will put pressure on the precious metals.

The Miners reacted bearishly to the dollar’s rally, losing over 7% on the day. The daily Miner cycle count is unclear. It could be day 6 but since gold is on day 18 then it is likely that Wednesday was day 17 for the Miners. A break below the day 22 low of 22.37 will form a failed daily cycle.

While the daily cycle count is unclear the weekly cycle count is clear. This is week 17 for the intermediate Miner cycle. A break below 23.39 will form a weekly swing high and signal the intermedaite cycle decline.