Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Tuesday and closed above the lower daily cycle band indicating a new daily cycle.

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Friday was day 5 for the new daily cycle. If the dollar is on week 10, like I suspect, then we should see the buck roll over day day 8 and form a left translated, failed daily cycle.

However, if the dollar goes on to close above the upper daily cycle band, that will indicate that this was week 1 of a new intermediate cycle.

Stocks
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The clear and convincing break of the declining trend line on Wednesday along with the close above the lower daily cycle band confirms that stocks left behind an extended 60 day, daily cycle low.

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Since December stocks have been in a daily down trend characterized by lows forming below the lower daily cycle band and peaks occurring below the upper daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in a daily down trend until they can close above the upper daily cycle band. And a close above the upper daily cycle band will also confirm a new intermediate cycle.

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