The currency wars are making it challenging to keep the daily cycle count straight. Friday’s surprise move by Japan caused the dollar to rally over 1%. The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday to make it appear that an early 12 day, daily cycle low formed.
However’s today’s drop keeps alive the possibility that Friday was not day 1, but that the dollar is still declining into its daily cycle low.
At times like this it is sometimes helpful to back things out to the weekly chart for a better perspective.
The dollar closed above the upper weekly cycle band on week 6 which indicates that week 15 hosted an intermediate cycle low. A close below the blue weekly trend line will signal that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline.
Cycle Trading 
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