Never miss an analysis →

Cycle Trading

Gold: The Big Picture

000http://postimg.org/image/6qfobl03p/

I decided to prepare this report to post today, and then take the next few days off 🙂

As the year draws to an end, it may be helpful to step back and take a look at the big picture for gold.

gold big picturehttp://postimg.org/image/stfwf1mf9/

Looking back over the prior 30 plus years for gold we can see that gold prints a major multi-year low, on average, every 96 months.

Once that major 8 year low prints, gold confirms a new 8 year cycle by regaining the 20 month MA.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/gvec15io5/

The current 8 year cycle peaked on month 35. November was month 73 for the 8 year cycle and month 11 for the yearly cycle. Gold is in its timing band to print a yearly cycle low. Since gold has printed a 76 month “8 year low” previously we need to be open to the possibility that this yearly cycle low could host the 8 year low. If gold regains the 20 month MA that will signal a new 8 year cycle.

0http://postimg.org/image/j6ce5btfp/

11 responses to “Gold: The Big Picture”

  1. ragingrooster Avatar
    ragingrooster

    Very interesting find. With that said, this cycle is poised to print a Left Translated 96 month(ish) cycle, meaning the next one should be a failed cycle and print a lower low, much like the 1993-2000 cycle which also incidentally peaked at month 35.

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      The big difference between now and the 93 – 2000 cycle is that gold is currently above the 20
      month MA.
      That may prevent a lower monthly low to print.

      Reply
  2. mika. (@mika2k1) Avatar
    mika. (@mika2k1)

    Have a great holiday, and thank you!

    Reply
  3. rob Avatar
    rob

    This is going to be a left translated 8 yr cycle low. Can we expect the next 8 year cycle to NOT exceed the last 8 yr cycle high? Colour me confused. 🙂 Merry Christmas

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Rob,

      Not necessarily. A left translated cycle implies a lower low.
      But as I noted below, gold is above the 200 month MA and that may prevent a lower monthly low to print.

      Reply
  4. rob Avatar
    rob

    Another question. Why do you anticipate an early yearly cycle low just because one was printed in 1999? Sure it happened before, but if the average is 96 months why are you expecting one when the 20 month moving average is broken to the upside? Couldn’t it be a fake-out? Gold needs almost 2 more years just to reach the average 8 yr gold cycle. Just asking. Thanks for this post, LM, and all the other free posts in 2014!

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Rob,

      Over the past 30 years every time gold has closed above the 20 month MA it has signaled a new 8 year cycle.

      Reply
  5. kim2523 Avatar
    kim2523

    “LMS”.. thought you might like to see Armstrong’s take on gold based on his cycle studies.

    [excerpt] “We achieved the “pop” in gold but there remains little follow-through. Gold is fading into the distant memories of so many investors that its luster is nearly gone outside the diehard believers. A year-end closing below 1227 will signal we will see new lows next year. A year-end closing BELOW 1155 will guarantee that drop below $1,000 is coming. The main support next year lies well below the market between $778-$618”
    [full post http://tinyurl.com/gold-for-closing-2014%5D

    And finally “LMS”, I want to wish you a Merry Christmas [assuming you celebrate it] , and to thank you for the very informative cycle posts this year, along with the very clever headlines that accompanied them. See you in 2015 ❥‿↗⁀♥ ❥‿↗⁀♥ ❥‿↗⁀♥

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Kim,

      Rejection by the 20 month MA would align with Armstrong.

      Thank you for your well wishes and I hope that you and your family had an enjoyable holiday.

      LM

      Reply
  6. The 12/26/14 Weekend Report | Cycle Trading

    […] declining monthly trend line will see gold break above the declining 20 month MA. As we discussed here, a close above the declining 20 month MA signals a new 8 year […]

    Reply

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.