Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The swing high off the day 25 peak signals that a daily cycle decline is imminent.

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Being this late in the daily cycle suggests a brief decline. Still the dollar should break below the daily cycle trend line before printing its daily cycle low.

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Our framework has the dollar printing a three year low in May. Therefore we should see the dollar back test the consolidation before continuing higher.

Stocks
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Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday since the day 29 peak. Thursday was day 39 and stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Therefore, the swing low formed on Friday signals a new daily cycle.

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Stocks delivered a bullish crossover on the TSI which supports the notion that Friday was day 1 of a new daily cycle. While we are looking for a break of the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle, regaining the 10 day MA adds another confirmation.

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