Gold Swing

July 17, 2014

Gold formed a swing low today.

Gold found support on Tuesday and Wednesday at the 50 day MA. Today gold formed a swing low that is quite likely the daily cycle low. A break above the previous daily cycle high of 1346.80 confirms today as day 2 of a new daily cycle.

The Miners also formed a swing low today.

http://postimg.org/image/dcg66ntvf/

Unlike gold, the Miners did not break the daily cycle trend line before forming this swing low. Also keep in mind the unfilled gap at the 25.50 level. The Miners do have a tendency of backtesting a bottom combine this with the SOS printed today makes me think that we will see a back test of this swing low.

The daily equity cycle correction confirmed today.

http://postimg.org/image/ajmymmtiz/

Thursday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. The trend line break confirms the daily cycle decline. Since the day 15 stands as the daily cycle peak, that keeps alive the possibility that this decline will result in a left translated, failed daily cycle.

Which means that stocks are certainly not out of the woods yet.

http://postimg.org/image/ajmymmtiz/

9 responses to “Gold Swing”

mika. (@mika2k1)

July 17, 2014

“The Miners do have a tendency of backtesting a bottom combine this with the SOS printed today makes me think that we will see a back test of this swing low.”
==

I think so too.

Reply
trondtveten

July 17, 2014

Hi! Tom McClelland (the ‘ son of the oscillator’ 🙂 thinks that gold hmay make another major low within 1 month, based on the left-translation of his cycle;
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/fishing_around_for_a_gold_cycle_bottom/

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 18, 2014
  
  If I understand his position, it seems that he thinks that gold is in month 13 of the current yearly cycle. And therefore believes that gold is in the timing band for a yearly cycle low. My view is that gold formed a shortened yearly low in December. And is currently in month 7 of a new yearly cycle.
  
  I do agree with him that the current yearly cycle is forming in a left translated fashion. His view is that the cycle peaked in August, 2013 on month 2. My framework shows that gold has peaked in March, which is month 3. And that is something that i have been watching and commenting on in the Weekend Reports. Gold has yet to break the pattern of lower monthly highs
  
  Reply
mika. (@mika2k1)

July 18, 2014

How does one determine when a daily cycle is complete?
Can you comment on the scenario shown on the chart linked:

$XAUUSD chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uQjkGbbr/

Reply
pk34145

July 19, 2014

The EURO may have put in an ICL at week 23.

Reply
likesmoneystudies

July 19, 2014

I was looking at the same thing this morning. And if that’s the case, that will put pressure on the dollar.

Reply
mika. (@mika2k1)

July 19, 2014

Question:
With the swing low in Gold, is the daily cycle now complete? If we break below the recent swing low in the next few days, would that make for a new daily cycle?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 19, 2014
  
  Gold formed a swing low late in the daily cycle at day 29. I believe that the daily cycle low is in. A break below the 29 low would signal trouble. I’ll have more to say in the Weekend Report.
  
  Reply
  1. mika. (@mika2k1)
    
    July 20, 2014
    
    “I believe that the daily cycle low is in.”
    ==
    
    Hmmm,.. the miners are very ambiguous on that. But thank you!