Cycle Trading

The daily dollar cycle sports a peak on day 10. The dollar has been in decline since breaking below the daily cycle trend line.

It appears that this decline could be a mini bull flag. With the dollar emerging from an intermediate cycle low we need to be open to the possibility that the dollar could still make one more push higher.

The Miners formed a swing low today and broke above its declining trend line. It looks as through the Miners printed a daily cycle low last Friday. However, the Miners have closed below the 50 MA for the previous 11 sessions. A close above the 50 MA would be very bullish and also deliver a clear and convincing trend line break. But if the dollar makes another spike higher that will likely send the Miners down to backtest the declining trend line.

Gold is still waiting on a trend line break. While the Miners appear to have left behind a daily cycle low last Friday, gold printed the lowest point to the cycle on Tuesday. Today saw gold form a swing low but stopped short of breaking through the declining cycle trend line. We need to see a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line to declare Tuesday as a daily cycle low.