Follow Through …

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We discussed last night how stocks closed below the 50 MA suggesting that they will break lower. Well today stocks followed through.

$ SPX Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 2

Tuesday was day 28 for the daily equity cycle and stocks broke convincingly below the crawl pattern. Recall that we are expecting a left translated cycle to print. With a day 15 peak, stocks are 3 days shy of forming a left translated daily cycle.

Now except for FED Day, gold and stocks have been treading inversely. So with a big down day in stocks I would have anticipated a big up day for equities, but that is not what happened.

spx gold

Gold had a marginal day up today.

gold

Wednesday was day 14 for the daily gold cycle and we see gold forming a mini triangle consolidation. Of course a break above this line signals a new intermediate cycle. But gold is still four days shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. A break below should send gold to seek out a new, lower daily cycle low.

2 responses to “Follow Through …”

  1. PT Avatar
    PT

    Where do you see the dollar now going in this whole equation, LM?

  2. likesmoneystudies Avatar
    likesmoneystudies

    The dollar is now on day 3 of a new daily cycle. On Friday it certainly looked like day one of a new daily began. So with last week being week 15 and a new daily cycle was starting we needed to acknowledge the possibility that an early intermediate cycle low printed. However, the dollar usually charges our of a daily cycle low. As this daily cycle has unfolded, the action has been weak. I believe that this is likely week 16 of the current, failed weekly cycle. Therefore, our expectation will be for the dollar to peak by day 8 and then roll over into a left translated, failed daily cycle.

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