Cycle Trading

Gold broke below the daily cycle trend line today signaling a daily cycle decline.

The big 3 plus percent drop also brought gold below the previous daily cycle low confirming the intermediate cycle decline. Gold’s timing band runs from day 18 – day 28 which leaves another 9 to 18 days for gold to print a daily cycle low.

The dollar managed to print another lower low on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 30 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar’s daily cycle is getting stretched. A swing low will likely signal a new daily cycle. A break above 80.316 forms a swing low.

With gold correcting into an intermediate cycle low makes me wonder if the dollar will be emerging from an intermediate cycle low?

The dollar is currently on week 15 for the intermediate cycle. With gold declining into an intermediate cycle low and the dollar reversing off the weekly 200 MA, there is a chance the once a low is formed that it could be an intermediate cycle low.

Since the dollar has already broke below the previous yearly cycle low any new intermediate cycle should roll over by week 8.

Stocks managed a bounce today.

Tuesday saw stocks form a swing low and break above the declining cycle trend line. It looks as if equities may have printed a half cycle low. Since stocks have already broke below its daily cycle trend line I expect any bounce here to fall short of the current daily cycle high. And then we should see stocks continue into a left translated cycle decline.