Cycle Trading

Bonds formed a swing high on Thursday.

Thursday was day 11 for the daily bond cycle. Bonds were getting a little overbought. At this point it is too early to determine if the cycle peaked or just taking a breather. While already forming a higher daily cycle high over the previous daily cycle a day 10 peak does not lock in a right translated nature.

Thursday was day 6 for the daily gold cycle. Gold has been crawling under the 50 MA. Often times a crawl along a Moving Average is a continuation pattern. There is a bearish divergence in the cycle lows verses the TSI. A break below the developing daily cycle trend line will signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Stocks had their first positive day in over a week. Stocks stopped short of breaking below the daily cycle trend line to signal that the cycle is in decline. Should stocks deliver some follow through to the upside, then this will likely mark a half cycle low.

A left translated cycle can still materialize if stocks to bounce higher but fail to break to new highs.