Cycle Trading

Tuesday saw the dollar form a swing low and test the declining cycle trend line. Then the dollar got smacked down on Wednesday – Fed Day.

Wednesday was the lowest point since the day 12 peak. Thursday and Friday saw the dollar rally a bit. At this point we do not know if Friday was day 23 or day 2 of a new daily cycle. The dollar would need to beak above 81.22 in order to form a swing low off of Wednesday’s low or break below 80.6 to continue its daily cycle decline.

Stocks

If this intermediate cycle is to form as a left translated daily cycle, then the current daily cycle will need also form as a left translated cycle.

To do so the daily cycle needs to peak by day 20. We see that the daily cycle formed a swing high on day 17 and there is also a bearish crossover on the TSI. A break below the daily cycle trend line confirms the daily cycle decline.

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