The 8/30/13 Weekend Report Preview

This week the dollar broke above the declining daily cycle trend line to confirm August 20th as a daily cycle low.

The dollar has been caught in the grip of an intermediate cycle decline since July 9th and has printed two left translated daily cycles since. Our expectation is for the dollar to continue to print left translated daily cycles until the intermediate low which is expected in late October or early November.

Friday was day 8 for the current daily cycle. Left translated daily cycles typically peak by day 8. If the dollar extends its rally is raises the possibility that this daily cycle initiated a new intermediate cycle. The daily cycle peak for the previous daily cycle was 82.49. A break above that would begin a pattern of higher highs — the hallmark of a new intermediate cycle.

However the dollar did print a bearish reversal after tagging the 50 MA. A break below 81.88 forms a daily swing high. The dollar has been contained by the 50 MA since it rolled over into its intermediate cycle decline and should continue to be contained by it as the dollar continues its intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Wednesday was day 46 for the daily equity cycle. That was the lowest point since the daily cycle peaked on day 28. A swing low formed on Thursday. That makes Friday possibly day 2 of new daily cycle. A new daily cycle will not be confirmed until there is a beak of the declining (dashed) cycle trend line.

If Wednesday turns out to be the daily cycle low, that will make that cycle right translated. That sets the expectation for the new daily cycle to print a higher daily cycle high over this previous cycle. So we should see a 2 – 4 week rally that peaks by day 20. We will also be monitoring the Selling on Strength days.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CCI Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

A free sample report can be found here: http://likesmoneystudies.wordpress.com/

5 responses to “The 8/30/13 Weekend Report Preview”

James

September 1, 2013

Do you think the Russell2000 making new lows on Friday signals new lows for the SPX? Have you seen cases before where the daily cycle lows for all of the indexes were not the exact same day?

1. likesmoneystudies
  
  September 1, 2013
  
  The Russell 2000 and the SPX do not always bottom (or peak) on the same day. For instance, Russell bottomed on 12/27/12 while the SPX bottomed on 12/29 …
  
PT

September 1, 2013

You’re a bit conflicted about the DXY, LM.

Could a new dollar IC begin so soon? Is there a precedent over the past few years?

Hope you see my message and can elaborate.

Thanks, PT

1. likesmoneystudies
  
  September 1, 2013
  
  PT,
  
  You are correct, the dollar is giving us conflicting signals.
  I believe that it is prudent to be aware of the possibilities.
  
  When you asked about a precedent over the past few years, I immediately thought of the dollar’s daily cycle antics as it dove into the 2011 three year cycle low. As I recall, the daily cycle trend was clearly lower, but interpreting the daily count was challenging during that time frame.
  
  But let’s take a look at the weekly cycle from back then.
  
  The intermediate cycle began to shorten and ended up printing 3 consecutive 13 week left translated intermediate cycles to conclude the three year cycle decline.
  
At Ease

September 15, 2013

Where do I get the password for September weekend reports?