Cycle Trading

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I wasn’t comfortable with my dollar chart last night.
I just did not like the way the declining trend line was drawn

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After my morning coffee, I gave it a second look

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I think that the dollar actually printed a RT 16 day daily cycle low on July 11th. Once looking at it that way, the declining trend line off the peak on 7/16 emerges. So a break above 82.186 forms a swing low.

This does not change my long term view on the dollar, but actually reinforces it. If I am right that July 11th marked a 16 day daily cycle low, then this was an extremely left translated daily cycle that peaked on day 2. That sets up the expectation of subsequent daily cycles forming as left translated daily cycles into the intermediate cycle low due in another 12 to 16 weeks.

So a left translated daily cycle forming here signals that the dollar is …

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