The 7/26/13 Weekend Report Preview

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Weekend Report
Monday was day 27 for the daily dollar cycle and the dollar made another lower low.

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The timing band for a low runs from day 18 through the 28th so the dollar is pushing to the later part of its timing band. A swing low at this point has a good likelihood of marking the daily cycle low. A break above 81.82 will form a swing low.

The daily cycle sports a day 14 peak. Should the dollar continue lower next week that could change the nature of this daily cycle from right translated to left translated. Most 1st daily cycles form as right translated cycles. I would not surprise me in the least if this daily cycle ends up as a left translated cycle because that dovetails into my longer term expectations for the buck.

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Looking at a longer time frame we can see how the dollar is sitting at an important pivot level. So the dollar is in the later stages of its timing band for a DCL and sitting on a pivot zone. I think that it is likely to see the dollar break below that zone before reversing in order to trap the dollar bears.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on Monday, day 20. A swing high formed and stocks drifted lower into Friday.

21 spx daily
greenshot

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Friday. Stocks appears to have back-tested the breakout level from the previous intermediate cycle high. A break to a new daily cycle high signals that Friday was a half cycle low. A break below Friday’s low signals a daily cycle decline.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CCI Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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