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Cycle Trading

Fuel for the Fire

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Gold set a new daily cycle high today, day 16.

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I think that it is no coincidence that gold’s three week rally has occurred during the dollar’s three week swoon.

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The dollar printed its yearly cycle low in June. The new intermediate cycle peaked on week 3 and then had that dramatic reversal. It is this three week swoon that has provided fuel for the fire for this daily gold cycle. This is beginning to look like the dollar is in the process of forming a left translated weekly cycle.

And the dollar continued to provide more fuel for the fire today.

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Tuesday was day 24 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar printed another lower low and is another day closer to this cycle forming as a left translated cycle.

If I am right that the intermediate dollar cycle has peaked, the dollar should begin forming left translated daily cycles. If that does not occur during this cycle, I believe that we will see the next daily cycle form as a left translated daily cycle.

And when the next daily cycle rolls over is when the train will leave the station …

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2 responses to “Fuel for the Fire”

  1. PT Avatar
    PT

    Back on July 12, LM, you wrote, “This is the first daily cycle of a new yearly cycle. This new daily cycle did start off with a powerful thrust. However, this dramatic reversal has me thinking that this new yearly cycle may have peaked.”

    With your added remarks about the dollar tonight, how many weeks could we anticipate the dollar sliding?

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      PT,

      My remarks may be premature. But the three year cycle for the dollar stands at 26 months. The dollar averages a major low every 35 months. The dollar is currently the process of printing an ugly red monthly reversal candle. The dollar is due to begin its three year cycle decline any time now.

      The tell will be the next daily cycle. If the next daily cycle for the dollar forms as a left translated daily cycle, then the dollar is toast. With the dollar currently being at week 5, that leaves about 15 weeks to be in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. That will take us into October, early November. I would then expect then next intermediate cycle to roll over quickly with the yearly cycle low printing in the spring.

      These three year cycle declines can be dramatic. I also believe that the dollar is in worse shape than it appears. The dollar has benefitted by being the least ugliest dog of the litter. So once this decline begins, I think it will surprise people by its voracity.

      Reply

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