Cycle Trading

The dollar just seemed to be treading water today.

The dollar is very late in its daily cycle. A swing low did print on Friday (barely) but so far no declining cycle trend line break. We are expecting a short bounce, lasting no more than 8 days, before the dollar resumes its yearly cycle decline.

Instead of a bounce, we see the dollar running into resistance at the 200 MA. I am beginning to think that all we may see is a breach of the 200 MA and then a reversal.

While stocks managed to recover their losses from Friday, they seem to be caught between the 1640 level and the 50 MA. Monday was day 7 for the daily equity cycle. As long as stocks remain above the 50 MA, then a new high is a likely scenario. However if they were to lose the 50 MA, then the intermediate cycle decline may be upon us.

A decline does seem to be taking shape with palladium.

Palladium has formed a weekly swing high today. Palladium has bee leading the precious metals by printing higher weekly cycle highs since July from last year.

I cannot say if gold and the Miners will follow suit or not.
But we do need to be careful in case this turns out to be
A canary in the coal mine …