Dollar Bounce …

Unless the dollar can break above Thursday’s high of 82.68, this is just a dead count bounce for the dollar.

The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on May 23 and has been in decline. Last Thursday it broke below the previous daily cycle low, signaling a failed daily cycle. Then the dollar printed a reversal on Friday. Monday saw the dollar provide some follow through to the reversal printed on Friday. But the dollar was halted by the declining cycle trend line. Unless the dollar breaks lower, the dollar would need break above Thursday’s high of 82.68 to form a daily swing low, signaling a new daily cycle.

Like the dollar, Stocks also printed a reversal on Thursday.

Stocks did break above the declining cycle trend line on Friday declaring it day 1 of a new daily cycle. Monday was day 2 and we see stocks running into resistance at the 1650 level. If stocks and the dollar maintain their recent correlation, then we may see the dollar break above its declining trend line joining stocks in a new daily cycle.

Monday was day 13 for the daily gold cycle and gold is not ready to show its hand. Gold could be moving into a daily cycle low or simply pausing before one more surge higher.

Our cycle methodology expects gold to print a higher daily cycle high following a right translated daily cycle. An exception to that would be if gold forms a triangle consolidation. And at this point either scenario is possible.

Once gold has re-established its bullish trend then it should start producing bullish resolutions or upside surprises.

Palladium provided a bullish resolution today.

Pallidum has been leading precious metals and continues to provide leadership …

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4 responses to “Dollar Bounce …”

pk34145

June 11, 2013

Thanks for another informative report. The triangle in gold just may be the explanation for this left translated second daily cycle.

Have you considered the possibility that we have not yet reached a yearly cycle low?

Price action in gold now looks to be seeking a daily cycle low. But instead of this being the second daily cycle (following a first daily cycle of right translation at 24 days) this may be one more left translated cycle currently on day 38. This would stretch out the intermediate cycle (and YCL) to week 31+. Has there ever been a weekly cycle that has run more than 31 weeks?

1. likesmoney
  
  June 11, 2013
  
  pk34145,
  
  “Have you considered the possibility that we have not yet reached a yearly cycle low?”
  
  Yes that possibility is certainly still on the table. Gold has failed to print a monthly swing low which is the perquisite for a yearly cycle low. I will point out that last year gold did need three months to form a monthly swing low.
  
  1. likesbullmarkets
    
    June 11, 2013
    
    LM to finish your last sentence… and proceeded to form a failed yearly cycle after that 3 month high.
    Can you tell the yearly failed cycle really bothers me =)
  2. likesmoneystudies
    
    June 11, 2013
    
    Likesbullmarkets,
    
    Yearly cycle lows are very trying, especially if they are in a current failed yearly cycle.
    Cycles from all levels (daily, weekly yearly) have failed and then gone on to print new highs.
    With gold, until there is a monthly swing low, there isn’t. But I believe that the 4 year low just was left behind.