Cycle Trading

The CRB is something that I normally cover as part of the Weekend Report.
It is worth taking a quick look at here.

May 15th looked in real time like a daily cycle low. However, we were keeping an open mind to the possibility that the daily cycle was extending. It looks like that may be the case. Monday the CRB formed a swing low. A break of the declining trend line would confirm Friday as a daily cycle low.

There also is some ambiguity that we need to clear up on the weekly chart.

The April pivot is probably the yearly cycle low. This recent dip may have just been a nasty bottom test. A break above the declining weekly trend line would confirm that the April pivot was the yearly cycle low.

The next task for the CRB would be the declining multi-year trend line, which I call the Inflation line. With all of the printing from the central banks, a break above this line will usher in an inflationary period …