Cycle Trading

The dollar rocketed to a new daily cycle high today.

Wednesday was day 10 for the daily dollar cycle and we can see that the dollar breached the upper Bollinger Band.

The timing band for a daily cycle low is still 8 days away. But the the dollar is now starting to get a bit stretched above the 10 day MA.
So at the least we could see the dollar stall to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to it.

Notice how since the dollar printed its daily cycle low that daily gold cycle has been in decline.

Wednesday was day 21 for the daily gold cycle. In order for this daily cycle to form as a right translated daily cycle gold needs to print a low before day 26. But more importantly, gold needs to hold above the previous daily cycle low in order to break the pattern of lower lows. Should gold print a higher low, that would be the first step in confirming a new yearly cycle.

Bonds have just begun a pattern of lower lows

The last daily cycle low printed in April. Bonds are in a failed daily cycle which signals an intermediate cycle decline. At day 24, bonds are in the timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bonds are also about to have a bullish TSI crossover. A break above 117.72 forms a swing low. And with it being so late in the timing band, there is pretty good odds that a swing low will mark the daily cycle low. A new daily cycle for bonds could pressure stocks.

Once a daily cycle low prints, I expect the next daily cycle to also form as a left translated daily cycle peaking on or before day 8.

Wednesday was day 19 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are close to confirming a right translated daily cycle. That would mean that we will need one more daily cycle to form as a failed daily cycle to lead into an intermediate cycle low.

There was a mild SOS number of 90.52 that printed printed today. I think that we could see stocks pull back into a half cycle low as bonds rally out of their daily cycle low. With an anticipation of a quick cycle peak for bonds, stocks should then continue to rally higher.