Cycle Trading

Wednesday was day 6 for the daily dollar cycle.

The dollar printed a reversal candle today, the second bearish reversal candle in three days. A break below 82.84 forms a swing high.

You will recall that the previous daily cycle was a failed daily cycle. That sets up the expectation for this cycle to also be a failed daily cycle printing a lower high and lower low. Please note that the April 4th spike up in the dollar did not effect the previous daily cycle decline.

Now lets take a look at the Euro.

Today was a 19 for the daily Euro cycle. Let me call your attention to the April 4 spike down. Like the dollar the April 4th the spike up did not affect the daily cycle there I believe that this is an anomaly and doesn’t impact the current Euro daily cycle. I recognize March 27 as the daily cycle low. That makes Wednesday day 19th of the Euro daily cycle. So Wednesday the Euro printed a bullish reversal. A break above 1.30336 forms a daily swing while the Euro is in the timing band for a daily cycle low.

I want to back things out now look at the previous year for the Euro. The Euro printed a yearly cycle in July 2012 you will notice that the daily cycles for the Euro tend to run between 17 and 22 days. Currently we are at day 19 at what appears to be the first daily cycle of a new yearly cycle.

A new daily cycle of a new yearly cycle for the Euro is congruent with out expectation that the dollar’s yearly cycle has topped and an intermediate cycle decline is in progress.

And the Miners certainly seemed to take notice today.

Well the minors did notice the first reversal the dollar printed on Monday. And they certainly did pay attention today on the bearish reversal on the dollar. Wednesday was day five for the daily Minor cycle. The Miners had a big day printing almost a 7% gain on the day and provided a nice upside surprise. Now granted they have a long way to go until they break above the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

Today was certainly a good step in the right direction …