The 4/19/13 Weekend Report Preview

April 20, 2013

The dollar printed a low on Tuesday, day 21 for the daily dollar cycle. Wednesday saw a clear and convincing swing low accompanied by a declining cycle trend line break declaring day 1 for a new daily cycle.

Friday was day 3 of the current daily cycle. This new daily cycle follows a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. By definition, that sets up an expectation of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore we are looking for the dollar to peak on or before day 8. With an expectation of lower highs and lower lows, the dollar be rejected by the 83.50 level and mark the cycle peak.

Stocks

After the day 27 fake out low, stocks rallied for 4 more days peaking on day 31. Stocks then declined forming a low on Thursday, day 36 for the daily equity cycle. A swing low formed on Friday which might be day one of a new daily cycle. Stocks will need to break above the declining cycle trend line in order to confirm Friday as day 1.

The current intermediate cycle began in November with this being the third daily cycle. This third cycle has formed as a right translated daily cycle.

Following a right translated daily cycle, we can expect the next daily cycle to exceed the high of this daily cycle. Confirmation of a new daily cycle will make it the 4th and quite likely the last daily cycle for this intermediate cycle. Our expectation will be for the new daily cycle to peak on or before day 20 and form as a left translated daily cycle.

A break below the intermediate cycle trend line brings us back to the scenario of day 27 marking a daily cycle low making Friday day 10.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CCI Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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9 responses to “The 4/19/13 Weekend Report Preview”

Hawaiifive0

April 20, 2013

Great report!

Reply
deadpresidentss

April 21, 2013

Hi,

I have attached an alternative gold count. Is it possible? If not I am interested to learn why.

Thanks!

Steve

Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2013 22:07:35 +0000 To: deadpresidents@outlook.com

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  April 21, 2013
  
  Steve,
  
  You will need to give it another try, I do not see an attachment.
  
  Reply
pk34145

April 21, 2013

LM, Thank you for another excellent report. I do have two questions.

# 1. Our expectation is for bonds to rally out of a three year cycle low while the $USD is seeking an ICL, YCL and three year cycle low. Is this a normal correlation between bonds and the dollar?

#2. Regarding gold you have stated: “A failed daily cycle signals an intermediate cycle decline. A failed weekly cycle signals a yearly cycle decline. Gold is in a yearly cycle decline. We are waiting on a monthly swing low and monthly trend line break. Gold has broke below the previous yearly cycle low making this a failed yearly cycle.” My question is…., from a cycles view of gold, will the failed yearly cycle provide the expectation of more failed intermediate cycles?

Another way of asking my question #2 is….., Are we to remain in a confirmed downtrend until the intermediate and yearly trendlines are broken to the upside? Can we continue to have cycles that never break the trendline?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  April 21, 2013
  
  pk,
  
  #1 — No, I would say a that one tends to follow another.
  
  #2 — We will continue to get failed intermediate cycle for gold until the yearly cycle low is in. Typically that is 2 intermediate cycles.
  
  Yes, we will continue in the down trend until the trend line is broken.
  
  It is times like this when an asset is seeking its yearly cycle low is when it seems that there will never be a trend line break, but there will be.
  
  Reply
2. likesmoneystudies
  
  April 21, 2013
  
  PK
  
  Here is a quick look at the correlation
  
  One tends to lead the other.
  
  What is interesting is while the dollar’s yearly cycle began in October, it really to gain any traction until February, then bonds followed two months later.
  
  Reply
  1. pk34145
    
    April 21, 2013
    
    LM.
    Thank you for the detailed response. Your recent studies of the dollar gives us a strong anticipation of a failing dollar. So even though bonds are just at the beginning of a new cycle…., they may eventually follow the dollar down. And then when you factor in the Fed…, it appears that Fed actions are propping up bonds while trashing the dollar.
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