Cycle Trading

It was not by much, but the daily dollar cycle broke below the previous daily cycle low delivering a failed daily cycle.

Friday was day 19 for the daily dollar cycle. The timing band for a daily cycle low can run out to 28 days so the dollar can trend lower for the next two weeks.

A swing low and declining trend line break will signal a new daily cycle.

The failed daily cycle is significant because it heralds an intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Friday was day 5 for the daily equity cycle and stocks may have just established the daily cycle trend line.

This is the 4th daily cycle of the current intermediate cycle which means that this will likely be the terminal daily cycle. This sets up an expectation for this current daily cycle to form as a left translated daily cycle peaking before day 20.

Gold

Gold has formed a yearly cycle low on the average of every 12 months since April of 2001. April is month 11 for the current yearly cycle. Even if gold did start a new daily cycle next week and it fails stretching the yearly cycle out another 5 weeks, gold would still be in the normal timing band for a yearly cycle low.

Like the daily cycle and the weekly cycle, we are waiting on the monthly cycle to also form a swing low followed by a declining monthly cycle trend line break. Since April has formed a lower monthly low the earliest a monthly swing low can now form will be in May.

So that only real anomaly to our cycle methodology is the current, stretched daily cycle count. Otherwise, the weekly and monthly cycle counts are within their normal parameters and we are awaiting swing lows accompanied with trend line breaks to identify new cycles.

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