Cycle Trading

The daily dollar cycle peaked on day 8 and has been in decline since.
Day 13 saw the dollar break out of the declining cycle trend line to print a new daily cycle high before closing back under the trend line.

Regardless of the day 13 peak we will be watching to see if the previous daily cycle low of 82.05 is taken out. A break below 82.05 delivers a failed daily cycle and signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline.

The Euro has (inversely) followed suit and and formed a swing low and broke above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

I would like to draw your attention to the yearly cycle low printed back in September on the weekly dollar chart below.

There are generally 2 intermediate cycles to the yearly cycle. The dollar is currently in the second intermediate cycle of the year. Should the current daily cycle fail that would signal an intermediate cycle decline is upon us — which should lead to the dollar’s yearly cycle low. At week 9 the dollar will probably go another 9 to 13 weeks before printing an intermediate cycle low. Also notice that we almost have a TSI bearish crossover. A weekly TSI crossover is a fairly reliable indicator of a weekly trend change.

The weekly EURO is about to deliver a bullish TSI crossover.

The last week of March was week 19 for the EURO. The EURO printed a swing low and broke above the declining cycle trend line this week.
19 weeks is certainly in the timing band to print a weekly cycle low. Therefore, this past week was very likely week 1 of the new EURO daily cycle. Since the previous weekly cycle was right translated, the expectation for this new daily cycle is to exceed the previous weekly cycle peak of 136.03

Stocks

This week stocks delivered a swing high accompanied with a trend line break.

Friday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. The long lower tail suggests a reversal is in the making. Should stocks form a swing low and break out to new highs, does that mean a 27 day daily cycle low was left behind? A 27 day daily cycle low would fall short of the timing band for a low. However, just this past year stocks treated us to two other shortened daily cycles as you can see below.

The first shortened daily cycle occurred prior to an extended daily cycle that resulted in a failed daily cycle and intermediate cycle decline.

Intermediate cycles are normally comprised of 3 and sometimes 4 daily cycles. if Friday does mark a daily cycle low, then allowing for another daily cycle to unfold (approx 40 days) would take the current weekly cycle out to about June — which is in the timing band for a yearly cycle low.

Now the expectation is for stocks to print a higher daily cycle high following a right translated daily cycle.

Bonds

Bonds had a big week last week and appears to have a change of trend.
Bonds, like the dollar, follows a three year cycle.

March was month 35 of the three year cycle so the monthly swing low and trend line break that occurred last week not only marks a yearly cycle low, but also signals a new three year cycle.

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