Cycle Trading

I will start off by recapping last night’s post and adding in charts.

The dollar printed a reversal today which formed a swing low.
We acknowledged in the Weekend Report the likelihood of a brief decline and the expectation of a new high.

With such a late cycle count we need to suspect that the daily cycle low was printed. With such a brief decline, a break to new highs is needed to confirm a new daily cycle.

Then we will keep watch to see if this new daily cycle peaks on or before day 8. Peaking on or before day 8 would signal a left translated daily cycle.

Gold gave us a pleasant upside surprise Monday.

Monday was day 17 for gold’s daily cycle.
Gold closed above 1600 and keeps alive the possibility of printing a right translated daily cycle. Breaking above 1620 locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle and signals that yearly cycle decline is over.

Monday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle.

Stocks managed to recover some of the early losses printing a long lower shadow to Monday’s candle.
Should stocks break to a new daily cycle high (above 1563.62) then Monday would have set the daily cycle trend line.

A weekly swing high has formed after the sell off on Monday.

If stocks reverse and break out to a new high, that would negate the weekly swing high.

Should stocks continue lower, then a break of the accelerated (red) trend line would signal an intermediate cycle decline.
A break a below the blue trend line would confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Bonds may have printed their yearly cycle low.

Bonds printed what appears to be a daily cycle low on Friday, March 8th .

A swing low was formed last Tuesday.
Yesterday saw bonds test the accelerated daily cycle trend line.

Should bonds break above the accelerated trend line it will be pretty safe to assume that a daily cycle low was printed on the 8th.

The last yearly cycle low for bonds was last March.
The first intermediate cycle ran 25 weeks.
The second intermediate cycle printed what looks to be a weekly cycle low on week 25.
That is in the timing band for a intermediate cycle low.

A break above 118.97 forms a weekly swing low.
It is worth noting the bullish divergence forming on the TSI.
A break above the declining green trend on will give a TSI buy signal on the weekly chart.

It is worth looking at last year when bonds emerged from their yearly cycle low.

As the rally out of the yearly cycle low for bonds gained traction, equites took it on the chin.

The events on Cypress managed to rock the markets on Monday.
It gave an excuse for the dollar to rally.
And in just so happens to be in the timing band for a yearly cycle low for bonds.

Was this just a butterfly flapping its wings in solitude or are there greater implications afoot?