Cycle Trading

Bonds last printed a daily cycle low on 02/01/13.
It has been almost three weeks and Bonds refused to form a swing low, until yesterday. Bonds had a big day on Monday, as stocks dropped.

Today was day 16 for the daily bond cycle. It was a narrow range day that printed a higher high before printing a bearish reversal on pretty significant volume easing the parameters to from a swing high. Today just may have marked the daily cycle top for bonds.

At 16 days, bonds are approaching there timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Bonds have virtually locked in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Right translated daily cycles are followed by another daily cycle printing a higher daily cycle high. Which means that this could have been the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle.

Now bonds have been locked in a yearly cycle decline since July.

A new daily cycle forming as right translated signals a new intermediate cycle.
With bonds at 11 months, they are in the timing band for a yearly cycle low.
Bonds would have to break above 119.67 to form a monthly swing low.
A break above the declining yearly cycle trend line confirms a new yearly cycle.

The Yellow Metal

Gold had a solid gain today being up by 20 points.
However, gold ran into a resistance level at 1620.

It took gold 6 tries to finally rally above this level last summer.
We can probably expect some resistance at this level again.
On the other hand, it would be a really bullish sign if gold slices through this level …

So, besides the obvious follow through to the daily swing low, gold has also formed a weekly swing low. Now we shouldn’t get excited until gold closes above the declining (red) cycle trend line. Still a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step and forming and a weekly swing low is an important step.

Commodities

The CCI seems to be following gold’s lead.

Tuesday was day 20 for the CCI Index daily cycle.
A bullish reversal printed today.
A break above 550.34 forms a swing low.
And at day 20, holds the promise of marking a daily cycle low.

That would be a bullish turn …