Cycle Trading

The dollar continued to rise today.

Following a failed left translated daily cycle this new daily cycle now has printed a higher daily cycle high.
This is beginning to look like a new intermediate cycle.

And now this daily cycle rally forces us to look at what this means on the weekly cycle

The rise in the dollar today formed a weekly swing low.
The question is — what does this mean?

Due to the failed daily cycle heading into the week 14 low, we labeled week 14 as an intermediate cycle low.
Since the dollar has now broken through the declining (red) weekly trend line it could invalidate week 14 as the intermediate cycle low.
That would then make last week, week 20.

The only way to know for sure is if the dollar breaks up through the declining (black) weekly cycle trend line.
That would confirm week 20 as the intermediate cycle low.

There is still the possibility that the current daily cycle peaks before day 8 and forms as a left translated daily cycle, as we discussed this morning.

In that case the door opens back up to this being week 7.

We will certainly watch this unfold.

Equities staged a rally into the close recovering most of the day’s losses.

Still the daily cycle has so far peaked on day 24.
If stocks break above the day 24 daily cycle high of 1514.96, then rally on.

If there is more follow through on the dollar rally, that could cause more selling in stocks.
If stocks break below 1495.71 a daily swing high forms.

Stocks enter their timing band for a daily cycle low on day 35, but we have seen equities print a low as early as day 29.

So continued dollar strength could send equities into seeking out a daily cycle low.