Cycle Trading

Friday was day 27 for the dollar’s daily cycle.

The dollar is now late in its timing band.
The next swing low should mark the daily cycle low.
A narrow range day on Monday could set up a swing low forming on Tuesday.

Recall last week how we discussed the 81.50 was a pretty significant level.
The dollar was decisively rejected by it this week.
The dollar formed a weekly swing high and broke the intermediate cycle trend line.
That confirms that the dollar has begun its decline into an intermediate cycle low.

Last week we saw the dollar testing the declining yearly cycle trend line.
This week we see that the dollar was soundly rejected by the declining yearly cycle trend line.
This reversal lower keeps alive the scenario that the dollar is caught in the grip of a yearly cycle decline.

A break below September’s intra-month low of 78.60 confirms that the dollar is still seeking out its yearly cycle low.

Stocks

The new daily cycle is certainly behaving like a new intermediate cycle.

Equities are already up 4.89% off of last Friday’s intra-day low.
Day 4 also saw equities break above the declining daily cycle trend line confirming a new daily cycle.

This week produced an equity weekly swing low.
Here are very good odds that this is week 1 of the new intermediate equity cycle.
The previous intermediate equity cycle peaked on week 14 and bottomed on week 23, forming a right translated weekly cycle.
Therefore the expectation is for this new equity cycle to print a higher high
Currently we see the weekly cycle is right up against the declining weekly cycle trend line.
A break above the declining trend line confirms a new intermediate cycle.

The yearly equity cycle stands at month 5.
It appears that a bullish reversal will be left behind.
Since 5 months is too early for a yearly cycle low, we likely witnessed the yearly cycle trend line being set.

This is supported by the fact that the previous weekly cycle printed as right translated, with an expectation of printing the next weekly cycle with a higher high.

A break below this trend line confirms a yearly equity decline.

Gold

Friday saw gold break through the 1740 resistance level.

At day 14, gold locked in a right translated daily cycle.
Since there are 4 more days before gold’s timing band for a daily cycle low, gold still has time to make one more push higher, potentially testing the 1800 level.

Last week saw gold break above the declining weekly cycle trend line.
This week gold formed a weekly swing low confirming that gold is in a new intermediate cycle.

November is month 6 for gold’s yearly cycle.
We see that gold tagged the yearly cycle trend line and reversed higher.
A break above October’s intra-month high of 1796 confirms that the yearly cycle is still in ascent.

Miners

Friday was day 4 for the Miner’s daily cycle.

The Miner’s have already rallied 7.8% form last Friday’s low.

While the Miners have yet to break above the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. Equities are on the verge of confirming a new intermediate cycle and gold has already confirmed new intermediate cycles. The Miners cannot be too far behind.

Last week was week 26 for the Miner’s intermediate cycle, which is getting late in the timing band to print a weekly cycle low.

The chances are very good that the Miner’s began a new daily cycle this past week.
And at 26 weeks, the chances are also very good that the Miners are also beginning a new intermediate cycle.
A break above 483.57 forms a weekly swing low.
A break above the declining trend line confirms a new intermediate cycle.

November is month 6 for the yearly Miner cycle.
The Miners tagged the lower stem of the developing triangle consolidation.
A bullish resolution to this monthly consolidation could see the Miners hit 800.

The CCI

Friday was day 14 for the CCI’s daily cycle.

Like gold, the CCI is printing a higher high, locking in a right translated nature to the current daily cycle.
There are still 5 more days until the timing band for a low begins.
A swing low for the dollar may herald a top to the current CCI daily cycle.

There were two important developments to our cycle framework this week with the weekly CCI.

The CCI formed a weekly swing low.
The CCI broke through the declining intermediate cycle trend line.
This confirms a new intermediate cycle for the CCI.

The confirmation of a new intermediate cycle has implications for the dollar’s weekly cycle.

Notice that the dollar tends to bottom as the CCI peaks.
Conversely the dollar tends to peak as the CCI bottoms.

The CCI confirming a new intermediate cycle adds an extra level of confidence that the dollar has indeed begun seeking out its intermediate cycle low.
That brings an expectation going forward that the dollar’s daily cycles will be left translated, printing lower highs and lower lows.

November is month 5 for the CCI yearly cycle.

The CCI ran into some major resistance at the 600 level in September.
Now with the confirmation of a new intermediate cycle, we see that the CCI likely set the yearly cycle trend line in November.

And with a fresh set of “legs” that a new intermediate cycle brings, I expect the CCI to break through the 600 resistance level and quite possibly test the all time highs in this new intermediate cycle.

Bonds

Friday was day 23 for the daily bond cycle.
Bonds are in the timing band to print a daily cycle low.

Bonds seem to have a little more work ahead of them because they have yet to convincingly break below the daily cycle trend line.

Once there is a trend line break, a daily swing low should mark the daily cycle bottom.

Week 10 formed a weekly swing high for bonds.

A break below the intermediate cycle trend line confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

November is month 8 for the yearly bond cycle.
Bonds printed a peak on month 4 and now are caught in a triangle consolidation.
A break below 1120 would confirm that the yearly cycle decline is still in play.